Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Winn singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second.8–2
- 7Wood homered to center (433 feet).8–1
- 5Rosario homered to left center (434 feet).7–1
- 4Young singled to right, Call scored and House scored, Adams to second.6–1
- 4Call doubled to left, Bell scored, Lowe to third.4–1
- 1Burleson singled to left, Contreras scored.3–1
- 1Lowe homered to right (360 feet), Abrams scored and Bell scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML WSH +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- STL: Elo 59.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +64 Elo | STL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 27–1711th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–45 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 44–27 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 47–44 | 48–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–12 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.