Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela doubled to right, Toro scored, Rafaela out stretching at third.10–3
- 6Bell singled to right, Lowe scored.9–3
- 4Ruiz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lowe scored, Lile out at second, Bell to third.9–2
- 3García Jr. grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Abrams scored, Wood out at second.9–1
- 3González singled to right, Eaton scored.9–0
- 3Rafaela homered to left (385 feet), Toro scored.8–0
- 3Duran scored on error, Toro safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Parker.6–0
- 3Duran tripled to right, Refsnyder scored and Story scored.5–0
- 3Anthony singled to right, González scored.3–0
- 1Refsnyder doubled to left, González scored.2–0
- 1González doubled to left, Eaton scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 18–2628th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–44 | 46–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 2–17 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.