Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McLain reached on infield single to second, Encarnacion-Strand scored.6–13
- 8Abreu homered to right center (407 feet), Rafaela scored, Duran scored and Toro scored.5–13
- 6Duran homered to right (373 feet).5–9
- 6Hays homered to center (414 feet).5–8
- 5Abreu homered inside the park to center (423 feet).4–8
- 5McLain singled to left, Espinal scored, Friedl to third.4–7
- 4Steer grounded out to third, Hays scored.3–7
- 4Hays tripled to center, McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.2–7
- 1Anthony singled to right, Hamilton scored, Rafaela to third.0–7
- 1Hamilton singled to center, Mayer scored.0–6
- 1Story homered to center (413 feet), Toro scored and Narváez scored.0–5
- 1Narváez doubled to center, Anthony scored, Toro to third.0–2
- 1Toro singled to left, Duran scored, Anthony to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML CIN +135 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +18 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 23–1917th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–38 | 42–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 31–13 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–48 | 40–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.