San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Bryce JohnsonBatting0-0, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Johnson walked, Brooks scored, Merrill to second, Díaz to third.1–8
- 5Steer homered to left (364 feet), Lux scored.0–8
- 5Lux singled to center, Hays scored.0–6
- 5Hays doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.0–5
- 4Steer homered to left center (403 feet).0–4
- 2Steer homered to right center (382 feet).0–3
- 1McLain scored on a passed ball by Maldonado.0–2
- 1McLain scored on a passed ball by Maldonado.0–2
- 1De La Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Friedl scored, McLain to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SD: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +20 Elo | SD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–22 | Road vs home | 22–1817th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 10th of 301527 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–35 | 45–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–46 | 35–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–5 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.