Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pozo singled to right, Walker scored, Arenado to second.5–6
- 9Arenado homered to left (383 feet).5–5
- 8Burleson singled to right, Donovan scored, Winn to third.5–4
- 8Winn reached on infield single to shortstop, Scott II scored, Donovan to second.5–3
- 8Benson hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.5–2
- 7De La Cruz homered to center (435 feet), McLain scored.4–2
- 7Lux grounded out to shortstop, Joe scored, McLain to third.2–2
- 3Lux grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, McLain scored, Friedl out at second.1–2
- 1Burleson homered to right (387 feet), Winn scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 63%
- ML CIN +160 / STL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- STL: Elo 52.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -170
- CIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +6 | CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +19 Elo | STL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 23–147th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–35 | 42–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–16 STL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.