Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz homered to left center (372 feet), McLain scored.8–4
- 8Encarnacion-Strand scored on Vest wild pitch, Lux to second on wild pitch by Vest.6–4
- 8Encarnacion-Strand scored on Vest wild pitch, Lux to second on wild pitch by Vest.6–4
- 8Lux singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Encarnacion-Strand to third.5–4
- 8Benson hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.4–4
- 8De La Cruz singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to second.3–4
- 7Greene doubled to center, Torres scored.2–4
- 7Torres singled to left, Báez scored, Torres to second.2–3
- 4Pérez homered to left center (408 feet).2–2
- 4Joe hit sacrifice fly to left, Stephenson scored.2–1
- 4Stephenson singled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–1
- 3Jones homered to left center (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CIN +150 / DET -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- DET: Elo 52.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −21 | CIN: Wade Miley: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +16 Elo | DET 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 24–102nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–32 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 25–22 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–41 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–5 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.