Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Parker MeadowsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Dylan CarlsonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carlson homered to right center (408 feet).4–1
- 4Meadows homered to right center (392 feet), McKinstry scored and Báez scored.4–0
- 4Dingler homered to center (387 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -200 / BAL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- DET: Elo 59.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- BAL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 3.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −12 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Keegan Akin: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +65 Elo | DET 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 13–1827th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–32 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–9 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.