Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg homered to left (363 feet), Henderson scored and O'Hearn scored.1–10
- 8O'Hearn singled to center, Holliday scored and Rutschman scored, Henderson to second.1–7
- 8Mullins scored on Brieske wild pitch.1–5
- 8Mullins scored on Brieske wild pitch.1–5
- 8Mullins doubled to center, Laureano scored.1–4
- 7Henderson singled to center, Rutschman scored.1–3
- 7Keith doubled to right, Torkelson scored, Pérez to third.1–2
- 3Urías homered to left center (380 feet), Mullins scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML DET +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 46.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +16 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 12–1828th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–31 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–35 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–8 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.