Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Elko singled to left, Lee scored, Benintendi to third.2–3
- 7Dingler reached on infield single to first, McKinstry scored, Keith out at home in rundown.2–2
- 7Pérez homered to right center (367 feet).1–2
- 4Meidroth singled to right, Taylor scored.0–2
- 4Tauchman hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 63.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 3.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +93 Elo | DET 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3020–14 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 30 |
| 26th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–29 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–20 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 23–9 CHW in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 32.