Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keith doubled to shortstop, Pérez scored.5–4
- 5Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored, Tauchman to third.4–4
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Benintendi scored.4–3
- 3Meidroth singled to left, Tauchman scored.4–2
- 3Tauchman doubled to right, Taylor scored.4–1
- 1Báez singled to left, Torkelson scored, Keith to third.4–0
- 1Dingler singled to center, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.3–0
- 1Greene singled to left, Torres scored and Ibáñez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 64%
- ML DET -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 65.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 3.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +113 Elo | DET 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 13–1625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–28 | 35–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–19 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–9 CHW in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 31.