Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3
- Brant HurterPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Michael A. TaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meidroth singled to center, Capra scored, Tauchman to third.1–8
- 8Tauchman singled to left, Taylor scored, Capra to second.1–7
- 7Slater doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Vargas scored.1–6
- 7Dingler doubled to left, Pérez scored.1–4
- 6Taylor homered to left center (396 feet), Slater scored and Quero scored.0–4
- 4Taylor walked, Vargas scored, Quero to second, Slater to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- DET: Elo 68.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +134 Elo | DET 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 5th of 301541 | Elo rating | 140729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–27 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–8 CHW in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 30.