Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi doubled to right, Capra scored.1–2
- 6Mountcastle stole home, O'Hearn stole second.0–2
- 6Mountcastle stole home, O'Hearn stole second.0–2
- 6Urías hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored, Mountcastle to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 66%
- ML CHW +185 / BAL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +86 Elo | BAL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–23 | Road vs home | 9–1728th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–24 | 21–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 29–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–10 BAL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.