St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Winn singled to left, Walker scored, Nootbaar to second.7–4
- 8Walker tripled to left, Barrero scored.6–4
- 8Arenado homered to left center (400 feet).5–4
- 7Winn singled to left, Scott II scored.4–4
- 5O'Hearn homered to center (405 feet), Urías scored and Henderson scored.3–4
- 4Kjerstad grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mountcastle scored, Carlson out at second, O'Hearn to third.3–1
- 2Nootbaar homered to right center (388 feet), Walker scored.3–0
- 1Contreras singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Herrera to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / BAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- STL: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +20 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +4 Elo | STL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–2 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.