St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Herrera doubled to right, Winn scored.6–4
- 5Donovan homered to right (390 feet), Winn scored.5–4
- 5Winn doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.3–4
- 4Carlson singled to right, Mullins scored, Handley to second.2–4
- 4Walker singled to left, Donovan scored and Winn scored, Herrera to second.2–3
- 2Holliday doubled to right, Mullins scored.0–3
- 2Handley grounded out to shortstop, Urías scored.0–2
- 2Mullins reached on bunt single to pitcher, O'Hearn scored on throwing error by pitcher Mikolas, Urías safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- STL: Elo 56.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −24 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +46 Elo | STL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 9–1628th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 13th of 301516 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–23 | 21–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–2 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.