Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-5, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3
- Bryse WilsonPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keith reached on infield single to second, Ibáñez scored, Dingler to second.13–1
- 8Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Meadows scored, Sweeney out at second, Ibáñez to third.12–1
- 8Ibáñez singled to right, Báez scored, Meadows to second.11–1
- 6Capra grounded out to shortstop, Meidroth scored.10–1
- 6Carpenter homered to center (398 feet).10–0
- 6Torres grounded out to shortstop, Meadows scored.9–0
- 4Carpenter homered to right (357 feet), Torres scored.8–0
- 4Torres singled to right, Meadows scored.6–0
- 2Pérez homered to left center (394 feet), McKinstry scored.5–0
- 1Dingler homered to left (377 feet).3–0
- 1Carpenter homered to right center (401 feet), Torres scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 68%
- ML DET -240 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DET: Elo 62.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +85 Elo | DET 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 141029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–27 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 21–8 CHW in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 29.