Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting2-3
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino singled to left, Loftin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML DET -180 / KC +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- DET: Elo 55.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- KC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 3.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 18–1215th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 22–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 20–11 KC in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.