Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Drew WatersBatting3-4
- Kris BubicPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Twins- Ty FranceBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Garcia singled to left, Loftin scored on error, Garcia safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Castro.2–1
- 7Fermin doubled to center, Waters scored.1–1
- 1France singled to center, Jeffers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML KC -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +8 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 18–72nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 151315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–27 | 30–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 17–12 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–34 | 19–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–19 MIN in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.