Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee singled to center, Correa scored, Jeffers to third.4–5
- 6Clemens homered to right (374 feet).4–4
- 5France singled to right, Castro scored and Vázquez scored.4–3
- 5Bader homered to left (417 feet).4–1
- 5Perez singled to left, Pasquantino scored.4–0
- 5Pasquantino doubled to left, India scored.3–0
- 3Garcia singled to right, Fermin scored and Pasquantino scored, Perez to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML KC +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −20 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC 0 Elo | KC 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 17–72nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 17th of 301506 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 30–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 17–11 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–34 | 18–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–18 MIN in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.