Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4
- Noah CameronPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9France homered to left center (403 feet), Correa scored.1–3
- 2Correa homered to center (429 feet).1–1
- 1Biggio doubled to center, India scored, Pasquantino to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML KC +150 / MIN -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- KC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 16–74th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 17th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 16–11 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–33 | 18–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–17 MIN in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.