Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Espinal doubled to left, Friedl scored.7–2
- 8McLain grounded into fielder's choice to second, De La Cruz scored, Steer out at second, Stephenson to third.6–2
- 8Steer walked, Espinal scored, Stephenson to second, De La Cruz to third.5–2
- 8Espinal reached on infield single to pitcher, Friedl scored on throwing error by pitcher Schreiber, Espinal to second.4–2
- 6De La Cruz homered to right center (451 feet).3–2
- 4De La Cruz homered to center (436 feet).2–2
- 2India singled to center, Massey scored, Isbel to second.1–2
- 2Isbel singled to center, Garcia scored, Massey to third.1–1
- 2Stephenson homered to center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML CIN +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- KC: Elo 53.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −19 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +23 Elo | KC 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 17–1013th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–25 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–33 | 20–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.