Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino scored on a balk, Rave to second, Perez to third.7–4
- 9Pasquantino scored on a balk, Rave to second on a balk, Perez to third on a balk.7–4
- 8Espinal doubled to right, Hays scored.7–3
- 7Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored.6–3
- 7Perez homered to left (397 feet), Pasquantino scored.6–2
- 5Stephenson homered to left (399 feet), Lux scored.6–0
- 3Benson hit sacrifice fly to right, Lux scored.4–0
- 3Stephenson singled to right, Hays scored, Lux to third.3–0
- 3Lux singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Hays to third.2–0
- 1Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Friedl scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML CIN +100 / KC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- KC: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +19 Elo | KC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 17–910th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–25 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–33 | 19–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.