Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waters singled to center, Garcia scored.7–5
- 8Dingler singled to left, Pérez scored.7–4
- 8Torkelson homered to center (436 feet).6–4
- 7Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored.5–4
- 5Torkelson singled to left, Carpenter scored, Torres to third.5–3
- 3Waters singled to center, Pasquantino scored and Perez scored, Garcia to second.4–3
- 2Dingler homered to left (394 feet), Pérez scored.4–1
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left center (442 feet).2–1
- 1Greene homered to right (429 feet), Keith scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 51.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 18–1113th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–26 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–17 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 21–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 19–11 KC in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.