Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–3
- 7Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Isbel scored, India to third.1–3
- 6Steer singled to left, Hays scored, Stephenson to second.1–2
- 5Witt Jr. doubled to right, Rave scored.0–2
- 4Waters singled to right, Garcia scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +27 Elo | KC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–1115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149914th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–25 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 21–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–3 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.