Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tauchman homered to right (347 feet).2–3
- 6Carlson doubled to center, Mayo scored.1–3
- 6Benintendi scored on error, Palacios safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Holliday.1–2
- 3O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to left, Holliday scored.0–2
- 3Urías singled to center, Handley scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML CHW +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −17 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +65 Elo | BAL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 11–1728th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 29th of 301411 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–25 | 22–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–12 BAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.