Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tauchman singled to right, Capra scored.2–4
- 5Mateo homered to right center (396 feet), Carlson scored.1–4
- 5Benintendi singled to right, Tauchman scored.1–2
- 4Mayo singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Mayo out stretching at second.0–2
- 1Holliday homered to right (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML CHW +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 63.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +97 Elo | BAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 10–1728th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 29th of 301412 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–24 | 21–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 33–23 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–11 BAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.