Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Westburg homered to left (385 feet).5–3
- 8Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to left, Holliday scored.5–2
- 5Torkelson homered to center (419 feet), Dingler scored.5–1
- 5Dingler singled to right, Greene scored.3–1
- 4Báez singled to right, Pérez scored.2–1
- 3Henderson singled to right, Holliday scored.1–1
- 2Pérez hit sacrifice fly to right, McKinstry scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML DET +110 / BAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 41.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −17 | DET: Brant Hurter: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +61 Elo | DET 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 12–1727th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–31 | 27–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–8 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.