Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kjerstad tripled to right, Urías scored and Mayo scored.3–2
- 6Raleigh singled to left, Williamson scored, Raleigh out stretching at second, Crawford to third.1–2
- 6Rutschman homered to right center (415 feet).1–1
- 4Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML BAL -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −15 | BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +56 Elo | SEA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–36 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 9–26 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–4 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.