Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Holliday singled to center, Adams scored.5–1
- 9Kjerstad doubled to right, Mayo scored.4–1
- 6Cowser homered to left center (374 feet).3–1
- 5O'Hearn singled to center, Rutschman scored, Henderson to third.2–1
- 2Tellez homered to right (404 feet).1–1
- 1Urías hit sacrifice fly to right, Rutschman scored, Henderson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML BAL +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −7 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 16–1418th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301480 | Elo rating | 151613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–36 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–4 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.