Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4
- Chris PaddackPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena singled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–2
- 9Bader hit sacrifice fly to center, Clemens scored, Bride to third.1–1
- 7Raleigh homered to right (362 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML MIN +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 15–1419th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 16th of 301511 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–24 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–35 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–7 SEA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.