Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8France singled to right, Correa scored.4–2
- 7Misner grounded out to first, Caballero scored.3–2
- 6Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jeffers scored on error, Correa safe at second on throwing error by second baseman B. Lowe, Correa safe at third on error.3–1
- 4Aranda singled to right, B. Lowe scored.2–1
- 2Clemens homered to center (415 feet).2–0
- 1Lee hit sacrifice fly to left, Larnach scored, Correa to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +2 Elo | MIN 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–33 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–10 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.