Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Michael StefanicBatting1-1
- Chris BassittPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mead homered to right (329 feet), Morel scored.0–13
- 7Díaz grounded out to second, Misner scored.0–11
- 7Rortvedt grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Misner to third.0–10
- 5Díaz hit a ground rule double, Misner scored, Rortvedt to third.0–9
- 5Rortvedt singled to right, Simpson scored and Walls scored, Misner to third.0–8
- 5Misner walked, Aranda scored, Walls to second, Simpson to third.0–6
- 5Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored, Aranda to second.0–5
- 5Aranda grounded into fielder's choice to second, B. Lowe scored.0–4
- 5Caminero doubled to right, J. Lowe scored, B. Lowe to third.0–3
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (407 feet), J. Lowe scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TOR -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 15–1826th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–21 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 19–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–20 TB in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 31.