Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-3
- Eric LauerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clase grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Kirk scored, Clement out at second, Barger to third.1–3
- 4Mead homered to left (386 feet).0–3
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (391 feet), Caminero scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TOR +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- TB: Elo 53.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +24 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 13–1826th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–19 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 19–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–18 TB in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.