Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jansen homered to left (383 feet), Caballero scored.2–7
- 8Caballero doubled to center, Mead scored and Aranda scored.2–5
- 7Correa homered to left (417 feet), France scored.2–3
- 6Aranda homered to right (356 feet), B. Lowe scored and Caminero scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML MIN +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TB: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +15 Elo | TB 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 15th of 301512 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–22 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–13 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–33 | 20–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–9 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.