Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Aranda scored on a balk, Simpson to second.0–5
- 8Aranda scored on a balk, Simpson to second on a balk.0–5
- 5Aranda singled to right, Díaz scored.0–4
- 4Caminero homered to left center (406 feet), Aranda scored.0–3
- 4B. Lowe homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML MIN +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 17–1923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–34 | 21–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–10 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.