Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Larnach doubled to right, Buxton scored and Castro scored.12–6
- 10Buxton singled to center, Bader scored and Lee scored, Castro to second.10–6
- 10Correa homered to left center (381 feet), Keirsey Jr. scored.8–6
- 9Larnach singled to center, Buxton scored.6–6
- 9Castro homered to right center (410 feet), France scored.5–6
- 8Raleigh homered to right (380 feet), Rodríguez scored.3–6
- 7Castro homered to right center (374 feet).3–4
- 4Lee grounded out to second, Jeffers scored.2–4
- 4Larnach homered to right (381 feet).1–4
- 1Arozarena homered to left center (377 feet).0–4
- 1Raleigh homered to right (356 feet), Crawford scored and Polanco scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML MIN +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +16 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +61 Elo | SEA 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 14–1319th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 16th of 301509 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–24 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–35 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–6 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.