Baltimore Orioles at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rooker singled to center, Butler scored, Wilson to second.4–5
- 5Holliday homered to center (430 feet).4–4
- 3Soderstrom grounded out to first, Wilson scored, Rooker to third.3–4
- 3Wilson singled to left, Clarke scored and Butler scored.3–3
- 3Butler doubled to center, Urías scored, Clarke to third.3–1
- 3Laureano hit sacrifice fly to left, Holliday scored.3–0
- 2Carlson homered to left center (366 feet), Urías scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -115 / ATH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.3 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −13 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 10–2229th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 143328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–36 | 30–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–4 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.
