Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 5 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Castro scored.10–4
- 8Lee singled to right, Vázquez scored.9–4
- 6Buxton singled to right, Clemens scored and France scored, Vázquez to third.8–4
- 4Butler homered to center (413 feet), Avans scored and Clarke scored.6–4
- 3Rooker grounded out to pitcher, Butler scored, Wilson to third.6–1
- 2Lee doubled to right, Larnach scored.6–0
- 2Larnach singled to left, Buxton scored.5–0
- 2Buxton doubled to center, Clemens scored and France scored.4–0
- 2France singled to right, Castro scored and Correa scored, Clemens to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML MIN -155 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +73 Elo | MIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 9–1929th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301510 | Elo rating | 143628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–24 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 22–36 | 36–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–2 ATH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.
