Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler doubled to center, Clarke scored.7–11
- 9Clarke singled to right, Andujar scored.6–11
- 6Bichette singled to right, Lukes scored.5–11
- 6Barger homered to right (406 feet).5–10
- 5Kirk singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.5–9
- 5Springer singled to center, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–7
- 5Rooker doubled to right, Butler scored on error and Clarke scored, Rooker safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Clement.5–6
- 4Langeliers homered to left center (417 feet).3–6
- 3Lukes reached on infield single to second, Straw scored.2–6
- 3Straw doubled to left, Barger scored.2–5
- 3Clement homered to left center (404 feet).2–4
- 3Wilson singled to center, Butler scored.2–3
- 2Springer hit sacrifice fly to right, Straw scored, Bichette to third.1–3
- 2Guerrero Jr. walked, Barger scored, Bichette to second, Straw to third.1–2
- 2Straw singled to center, Clement scored, Straw to second, Barger to third.1–1
- 2Soderstrom homered to center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML ATH +150 / TOR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- ATH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +61 Elo | TOR 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 17–1217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 28th of 301440 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–29 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 14–11 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–24 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–8 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
