Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Walker homered to left center (417 feet), Altuve scored.1–11
- 4Altuve homered to center (410 feet), Peña scored.1–9
- 4Butler homered to center (418 feet).1–7
- 3Smith doubled to center, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.0–7
- 3Altuve homered to left (348 feet).0–5
- 2Peña homered to left (330 feet), Dubón scored.0–4
- 2Dubón doubled to left, McCormick scored.0–2
- 2McCormick doubled to left, Diaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML ATH +170 / HOU -205
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -181
- ATH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +9 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +112 Elo | HOU 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 18–1011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 28th of 301447 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–26 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–23 | 21–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–18 HOU in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 26.
