Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Zach DezenzoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini singled to center, Paredes scored and Peña scored, Dubón to third.3–5
- 7Dezenzo homered to center (416 feet).3–3
- 5Wilson homered to left (366 feet).3–2
- 4Smith singled to right, Walker scored.2–2
- 3Paredes hit sacrifice fly to center, Dezenzo scored.2–1
- 3Rooker doubled to center, Wilson scored.2–0
- 3Wilson doubled to center, Urías scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML ATH +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −15 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +99 Elo | HOU 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 19–1010th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 15298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–27 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–23 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–19 HOU in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 27.
