Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 4Langford homered to left (373 feet).2–1
- 4Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to third.2–0
- 1Varsho homered to right (374 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TOR +120 / TEX -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +25 Elo | TEX 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 17–1015th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–22 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26 | 17–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–8 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.