Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Easton LucasPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to center (407 feet), Butler scored.7–8
- 6Clement scored on Hoglund wild pitch.5–8
- 6Clement scored on Hoglund wild pitch.5–8
- 5Springer homered to center (420 feet).5–7
- 3Springer homered to center (430 feet).5–6
- 2Bichette homered to left (390 feet).5–5
- 2Clarke homered to left (406 feet), Urías scored.5–4
- 1Lukes singled to center, Springer scored and Varsho scored.3–4
- 1Barger homered to right (428 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.3–2
- 1Soderstrom homered to center (411 feet), Wilson scored and Rooker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML ATH +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.4 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | ATH: Gunnar Hoglund: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +78 Elo | TOR 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 18–1215th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 28th of 301438 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–30 | 34–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–11 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–9 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
