Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Lukes scored and Schneider scored.4–8
- 8Lukes singled to right, Clement scored, Schneider to second.4–6
- 8Barger homered to right center (412 feet), Springer scored and Roden scored.4–5
- 8Wilson hit sacrifice fly to right, MacIver scored, Clarke to third.4–2
- 5Kirk doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer thrown out at third.3–2
- 5Springer singled to left, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.3–1
- 5Urías doubled to left, Andujar scored and Rooker scored.3–0
- 1Soderstrom grounded out to first, Butler scored, Wilson to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML ATH +205 / TOR -250
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -218
- ATH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +94 Elo | TOR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 28th of 301438 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–30 | 34–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 15–12 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–24 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–10 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
