Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5
- Jacob LopezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa grounded out to third, Jeffers scored, Larnach to second.10–3
- 7Lee scored on Ferguson wild pitch, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Ferguson.9–3
- 7Lee scored on Ferguson wild pitch, Lewis to third on wild pitch by Ferguson.9–3
- 7Lewis doubled to left, Correa scored and France scored, Lee to third.8–3
- 7Lee hit by pitch, Larnach scored, France to second, Correa to third.6–3
- 6Urías grounded out to second, Langeliers scored.5–3
- 6Buxton singled to center, Lee scored and Lewis scored, Bader to second, Buxton to second, Bader safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Clarke.5–2
- 6Castro homered to left (381 feet).3–2
- 6Larnach homered to right center (432 feet).2–2
- 4Castro homered to left (395 feet).1–2
- 3Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.0–2
- 1Rooker singled to right, Butler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -205 / ATH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- ATH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Grant Holman (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 9–2029th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 143428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–24 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–13 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–2 ATH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.
