Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Henderson homered to right (361 feet).4–3
- 6Rutschman homered to right (337 feet), Holliday scored.3–3
- 5Raleigh homered to right (337 feet), Crawford scored.1–3
- 3Raleigh singled to left, Polanco scored.1–1
- 3Handley scored on Woo wild pitch.1–0
- 3Handley scored on Woo wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML BAL +130 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- BAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +5 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +34 Elo | SEA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–36 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 9–27 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–4 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.