Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers singled to right, Vázquez scored, Buxton to third.6–1
- 8Castro singled to left, Clemens scored.5–1
- 8Larnach singled to center, Jeffers scored on fielding error by center fielder Clarke, Larnach to second.4–1
- 5Wilson doubled to right, Butler scored.3–1
- 5Bader homered to left (391 feet), Lewis scored.3–0
- 1Jeffers homered to center (414 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML MIN -175 / ATH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- ATH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +8 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: Justin Sterner (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +38 Elo | MIN 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 9–2129th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 143128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–24 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–13 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 24–36 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–2 ATH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 15.
