Minnesota Twins at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rooker doubled to right, Butler scored and Clarke scored.3–14
- 7Lee singled to center, France scored.3–12
- 7France doubled to left, Wallner scored.2–12
- 5Schuemann singled to right, MacIver scored.1–12
- 4Soderstrom homered to left (364 feet), Butler scored, Wilson scored and Rooker scored.1–11
- 4Wallner homered to right center (399 feet).1–7
- 3Soderstrom homered to center (433 feet), Rooker scored.0–7
- 3Wilson homered to left (398 feet).0–5
- 1Muncy homered to left (410 feet), Wilson scored and Rooker scored.0–4
- 1Rooker singled to left, Butler scored, Wilson to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -200 / ATH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -177
- ATH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +70 Elo | MIN 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 9–2229th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 142928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–24 | 29–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–13 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders | 24–37 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–2 ATH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 16.
