Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Greene singled to left, Torres scored and Carpenter scored.0–4
- 1Torkelson doubled to center, Torres scored and Meadows scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML CHC +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 47.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 22–92nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301550 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–31 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–19 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–27 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–3 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.