Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9García Jr. singled to center, Lile scored.7–1
- 9Happ singled to center, Shaw scored, McGuire to second.7–0
- 9McGuire reached on infield single to pitcher, Hoerner scored, Shaw to third.6–0
- 6Happ homered to right (405 feet), McGuire scored.5–0
- 2Happ doubled to right, Shaw scored.3–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong homered to center (412 feet), Tucker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML CHC -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.1 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | CHC: Drew Pomeranz: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +61 Elo | CHC 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301547 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 34–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–19 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 34–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–6 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.