Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Swanson reached on infield single to shortstop, Tucker scored, Kelly to second, Suzuki to third.0–2
- 8Suzuki doubled to right, Happ scored, Tucker to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML CIN +150 / CHC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -161
- CIN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Pomeranz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +72 Elo | CHC 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–25 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–35 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 17–13 CHC in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 30.